Voters across the country filled in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections Nov. 3, determining the American political landscape for the next two years. This election marked a slew of historic firsts for states across the country, including the election of the first Native American female governor, the first Black female governor and the first Muslim U.S. Senator.
Professors from the University of Southern California (USC) and Claremont Graduate University came to Occidental and discussed the results of the 2026 midterm elections Nov. 4 in a panel moderated by Occidental professor Isaac Hale.
Panelist Jennifer Merolla, USC professor of political science, said she was surprised by the election of Democratic senators in historically Republican states. Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932, Texas elected its first since 1988 and South Carolina its first since 1998.
“What was most surprising was especially how many seats they picked up in non-traditional Democratic [areas],” Merolla said. “I mean [these were] places that Trump carried by double digits [in 2026], so that’s pretty remarkable.”
Panelist Christian Grose is a professor of political science and international relations and public policy at USC and director of the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab. Grose said prior to the midterms, states like Texas, Florida and Georgia had passed legislation that redistricted House representative voting areas to favor Republicans.
“The redistricting maps that the Republicans passed were supposed to net additional seats for the Republicans, [but] because the wave was so large, they did not,” Grose said. “If the old maps were in place, Democrats would have won even more, which would have been fairer. […] The maps actually did not perform as expected, but they still protected some Republicans in Texas and a few other states, like Florida.”
Occidental student Sarah Hathaway (junior) said while she had hoped for a Democratic swing in midterm results, she was surprised by the volume of Democratic candidates elected.
“I was expecting a Democratic surge, but definitely the extent was pretty shocking, especially in states like Mississippi,” Hathaway said.
Merolla said the blue wave seen in the midterm results was caused by a general dissatisfaction with the current president and associated Republican Party members.
“Democratic voters were motivated to vote against Trump, his agenda and the Republican Party agenda, and I think that’s what really drove a lot of their decisions in the cycle,” Merolla said. “[Democratic voters] were enthusiastic that it seemed they had a chance of doing that.”
Hathaway said she hopes that future political decisions will be made through collaboration across parties rather than the highly polarized decision-making seen during the Trump administration.
“Maybe they’ll be able to form some coalitions between left and right, rather than sticking to what Trump wants, especially with his increased unpopularity,” Hathaway said. That’s my dream of what will happen.”
Panelist Carlos Algara, Claremont Graduate University assistant professor of political science, said although he does not expect to see much accomplished by either side prior to the 2028 presidential race, he expects to see the Republican Party trying new strategies to keep the party afloat.
“I think you’ll see a greater willingness for Republicans, especially on symbolic bills, to break from President Trump,” Algara said. “I don’t think he’s ever been this politically weak, so I suspect you’ll see a less unified Republican Party and I suspect you might see some vetoes.”
Occidental student Hailey Yi (first year) said she was overjoyed by the election results, which she hopes leads to pushback against the Trump administration.
“[I’m] very happy with the direction that it’s going, especially because I would personally say it’s been kind of horrible for me since Trump’s been elected,” Yi said. “It’s been pretty scary, so I think an increase of hope was really needed, and that’s what I’m excited for. [I’m] hoping to see more change continuing forward.”
Grose said the results of the election provide evidence that different types of Democratic candidates have the ability to win elections all across the country, including centrists, progressives and Democratic Socialists.
“I think it shows Democrats that it’s wide open,” Grose said. “All kinds of Democrats can win in the United States.”
Merolla said going into the 2028 presidential election, the Democratic Party will likely be interested in finding a Democratic candidate that can gain votes from independents and historically Republican voters.
“I think [Democrats] will especially be drawn to some of the more moderate candidates that seem to win in Republican areas because they are coming off [the 2024 presidential] election that they lost and they are going to be a little more risk-averse,” Merolla said.
Merolla said the historic results of this year’s midterms were influenced by a number of factors which continue to get worse under the current administration.
“It’s monumental, the changes that we see, but it’s based on fundamentals for how people make decisions in congressional elections,” Merolla said. “This confluence of a really unpopular president and voters really unhappy with the economic situation, the country, war in Iran and high gas prices helped lead to that really monumental change.”
Contact Sadie Maguire at smaguire@oxy.edu
