Author: Sarah Dunlap
Journalist, author and former Clinton advisor Sidney Blumenthal spoke at Occidental, Monday, April 16, outlining the obstacles standing between political contenders and the American Presidency. Diplomacy and World Affairs Professor Derek Shearer invited Blumenthal on behalf of the department and the Global Affairs Office. Approximately 30 students and faculty filled Johnson 200 for Blumenthal’s presentation, which predicted the hardships that both Republicans and Democrats will face in garnering votes, campaign contributions and credibility.
Blumenthal, who recently authored How Bush Rules, reviewed George W. Bush’s tactics as a leader and described how his political legacy will shape the 2008 elections. Blumenthal said that Bush has been a profoundly radical President who disregards the divisions of federal power and believes that the Executive Branch should operate without restrictions during wartime. Moreover, Blumenthal said that the Bush administration is unique in its dismissal of science, particularly on the issue of climate change. “[The federal government is] making policy decisions on the basis of ideology rather than scientific expertise,” he said.
As a result, Blumenthal said, the 2008 Presidential contenders each face unique challenges. Republicans, he said, must embrace their electorate to win conservative support, yet risk alienating the rest of the country that has grown disillusioned with the Bush agenda.
“The Republicans live in a universe unto themselves. When I say that, I’m not making a judgment,” Blumenthal said. “Independent voters [. . .] now resemble very closely Democratic voters in what they prefer. They react to the Bush Administration like Democrats, but Republicans overwhelmingly still support Bush and his policies. That means Republican candidates are running against public opinion as a whole.”
Conversely, Blumenthal said, the top three Democratic players, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) and former Senator Jon Edwards (D-NC), must distinguish themselves from one another, even though their platforms appear similar. “So you have these three candidates on the Democratic side,” he said. “Very few policy issues in fact separate them. More or less they’re on the same page [. . .] to the degree they have differences, they are differences of nuance on policy.”
Blumenthal described Clinton’s current lead over Obama and Edwards and seemed confident that she would be the Democratic Presidential nominee. Politics Professor Caroline Heldman agreed with this projection. “Senator Clinton is certainly the front runner on the Democratic side, and Senator Obama and John Edwards will likely not unseat her,” Heldman said. Urban and Environmental Policy Director and Politics Professor Peter Dreier, however, disagreed.
“I think John Edwards still has a good shot at winning the nomination, especially if he wins the Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina primaries and comes in first or second in New Hampshire, which I think he can do,” Dreier said.
Referencing Los Angeles Times writer Rob Brownstein, Blumenthal said that Democratic voters have already chosen their candidates and that it is not difficult to predict each politician’s constituency. “Barack Obama [. . .] has captured the interest and support of mostly the college-educated and those making more than $100,000 a year. That’s his base,” Blumenthal said. “Hillary Clinton has the traditional Democratic [blue-collar] base going back to the New Deal. Edwards has a slice of that as well, but much less.”
Blumenthal predicted that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Mitt Romney (R-MA) and former Mayor of New York City Rudy Guiliani will encounter problems with their political track records and reputations. “McCain is not seen as a party loyalist but a party disloyalist, [. . .] Guiliani is seen as a social liberal. He is at the end of the day also an Italian catholic from New York State,” he said. “Romney has switched many of his positions, and he also happens to be a Mormon. Hostility to Mormonism runs very deep in the Republican Party back to the Nineteenths century. [. . .] The Republicans are unhappy with the field they’ve been presented with, but there doesn’t seem to be an acceptable candidate.”
After the presentation, Professor Shearer spoke highly of Blumenthal’s qualifications, highlighting his work in journalism and politics. “I’ve known Sidney Blumenthal since we worked together on the weekly newspaper the Boston Phoenix in Boston,” Shearer said. “He is one of America’s leading journalists, having worked for the New Yorker, the Washington Post and the New Republic.”
Heldman agreed and appreciated the experience from which Blumenthal’s opinions came. “As someone who has been a formal and informal part of national government, Mr. Blumenthal provided ‘insider’ information that was quite illuminating,” she said.
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